Experienced X-er:
Person who has been actively engaging in
But…one may be highly experienced as a “follower” on trips but lacking in judgment due to gaps in experience and other factors. One also may be a highly experienced leader who has been lucky that their repeated instances of poor judgment have not led to accident, injury, or worse.
I have done the Subway 4 times in the last two months. Each time I witnessed behavior that could easily have resulted in rescue, but was instead brushed off with bravado and laughter. For example, I saw someone slip and fall off the twin falls just downstream of the North Pole. No serious consequences. No helmet. On another trip, folks were hand-lining keyhole falls. One person swung off the bowling ball at the head and essentially fell* to the bottom. Audible thud. Everyone laughed. In both cases, laughter made a good tension-relief, but there was no inkling that anyone in the group(s) were aware of their good fortune.
*extremely fast hand-rappel with leather gloves worn. Note that leather can become very slick and slimy when wet. Not so good for hand-lining wet ropes.
Phillip
If response to their decision in video…the area looks like poorly planned sprawl and it was happening fast. Who knows what was behind them in backyard, i.e. they may have been on highest ground possible.
I do know one thing, southern Utah has plenty of private property in flood drainages. Here in Cedar they were allowed to build in a historic “lake” bed that was dry for a decade. Didn’t end well. City planning was not a high priority in this region for a while; from the drone video its obvious some of those homes in Hillsdale are in flood basins as well.
Sent from my MotoG3 using Tapatalk
ratagonia
Utah attitude: “City planning is a communist plot”. Although, I guess we say “socialist plot” these days.
Tom
Deagol
oh thanks… watched it with the sound off last time…
I did notice they kept saying “Oh my goodness” like they were afraid to say “Oh my $%^& god !!”
gajslk
When I watched the Hildale video taken by the two women, listening to them say “It’s coming into our yard”, followed by “Our whole front yard is gone”, all I could think was WTF are you still doing in the house? Shouldn’t you be heading for higher ground? I guess they’d have gotten wet.
Gordon
Deagol
have a link for that vid?
gajslk
Spinesnaper posted it above … I didn’t want to copy the whole thing to save space. Oops.
Gordon
Deagol
drone vid of Hilldale after the flood
Scott Patterson
There can also be a 100 year flood in Pine Creek in 2016. And then a 100 year flood in Pine Creek in 2017. It’s a probability thing
Yes. In October 2006, Hanksville had two 100 year floods within days of each other.
Scott Patterson
Perhaps someone with training in meteorology can explain what this 100 year number means exactly and if it is used properly in this context.
Civil Engineer here. A 100 year flood means there is a 1% chance of such flood in any given year at a certain given location. More than one such flood can happen in a hundred year flood or zero can happen in 100 years.
Because a 100 year flood is for a specific location, statewide, there is likely going to be serveral 100 year floods within a single decade and in various locations.
As an imaginary situation:
Pine Creek may have a 100 year flood in 2016.
La Verkin Creek may have a 100 year flood in 2018.
The Subway might have a 100 year flood in 2025.
So, you will hear of 100 year floods more than once in a 100 year timespan, they are just usually in different locations. A 100 year flood only means that in any year there is a 1% chance of having such a flood in any specific location.
ratagonia
There can also be a 100 year flood in Pine Creek in 2016. And then a 100 year flood in Pine Creek in 2017. It’s a probability thing.
Tom
Phillip
I might see the benefit of that assessment on a general level but your response was to a specific day and event so I am not sure I agree with that assessment or conclusion.
I think its important to highlight a quote from a previous link:
While the “rare” event title and “100 year flood” description sound important they are less relevant when it comes to learning about this event for the reason stated above. The fact of the matter is the amount dropped in this one spot is nothing “unusual” when you look at the southern utah region as a whole during monsoon season. When we take that analysis it should highlight the uncertainties of relying on anything as simplistic as given “percent change of rain” as the principle component of mitigating flash food risk. Even NOAA recognizes the limitations of its systems as it only warns about flash flooding in general. Normally their scale of reference is a region or rather large drainage (like the Virgin River) but nothing as specific as a canyon or slot. If the scientists can’t predict how much water will fall, in what exact drainage, etc who are we kidding ourselves that we can extrapolate more?
Yeah, speed is a critical variable in managing risk in these environments but its not always that relevant. It would not matter how fast you were going in Keyhole at the time of this flood, plain and simple. As the linked video highlights it hit directly over this drainage but was noticeably clear (from the perspective one would have on the ground making last minute go-no-go decisions and the linked analysis highlights) only 15-20 minutes before; it moved in from the south which is relatively blind from the canyon once over the saddle. So I am not convinced the newness of this crew and the slower nature of inexperience was the most important variable that led to their unfortunate deaths. I think we are socially setting up dangerous precedents if those are the lessons we decide to highlight; they are variables but I am not sure they are as relevant as simplified information (% chance of rain) and a prior commitment to descend.
Ultimately we each get to decide what to do and how to “mitigate” risk but I challenge the social tendency to assume we as experienced canyoneers could have managed to descend Keyhole at this given time and with the same information on this day with much of a different outcome. I think this storm highlights the limitations of human knowledge and the application thereof. Falling back on the bias of expertise is a fallacy that concerns me in this particular case.
Phillip
spinesnaper
It strikes me that 100 year weather events seem to some up much more often that every 100 years. Perhaps someone with training in meteorology can explain what this 100 year number means exactly and if it is used properly in this context.
With regard to root cause analysis, entering a canyon on a day with a 40% chance of precipitation has to be regarded as a contributoring error. Is an inexperienced group more likely to make that error? A group of more experienced canyoneers passed this group shortly before the flash flood, so there is your answer. However, lack of experience will be judged to be a contributing factor. If it happened to an experiences group, entering the canyon with a risk of flash flood would still be considered a contributing factor. We might attribute the error to over confidence. If you make an error in judgement and no accident occurs, that does not mean the judgement was correct.
Ken
Alias_Rice
All the talk of risk tolerance and blame on this and other sites reminded me of this blog post from last winter by the Utah Avalanche Center. Different sport, but many similarities in group dynamics and risk tolerance.
https://utahavalanchecenter.org/blog-drift-failureor-mathematics-and-few-thoughts-risk
Phillip
Alias,
Have you read the book referenced in the blog post by chance? I am curious if Dekker saw that type of risk management as consistent across users in the same sport/endeavor or if certain types of variables (education, experiential knowledge, predispositions) altered the trajectory. Curious minds.
I do think one of my greatest lessons in outdoor endeavors was a reinforcement of knowing ones risk tolerance as well as setting up a group environment to discuss that reality.
Phillip
spinesnaper
Tom
Thanks for sharing that. Remarkable. This data and images are a stark reminder of how dangerous these flash floods can be and the importance of not being in a particular drainage when there is a risk of flash flood. It is very hard to get out of the way of these flows when you are in the drainage. The volume of water is mind boggling. Here is raw video from the Hildale flood, which a few minutes later hit the Keyhole drainage (Viewer discretion advised):
Kevin
Man, that video is very upsetting. Such a tragedy.
ratagonia
Good analysis of the rain event:
spinesnaper
Experienced outdoors person or worse, very experienced outdoors person is a type of epitaph. It is a sort of statement made by friends and family about someone who did a lot more things in the outdoors than then they do but has met an untimely death or had a severe accident while engaged in their outdoor activity. It really does not reflect any thing about technical competence. Hiking is often used as a euphemism for the activities involved in canyoneering. I catch myself telling my wife that I am hiking in Zion when what I am really doing is technical canyoneering which is obviously much more involved than what is implied by “hiking.” I also sort and load my gear into the car out of sight. She has seen the pictures of what I do but she get nervous hiking along the edge of a trail with any kind of drop off, so why stir up anxiety. She gets anxious just thinking about my 8 hour drive to Zion. I do not invite my city bound friends on canyoneering trips. It is clear that very few people are capable of putting out the effort needed to do even a canyon like the Subway. Beyond the technical skills, I am concerned that many people might have a physical or mental breakdown out in the field. That is also a concern with the meet ups: who exactly are you meeting up with? A solid canyoneer is one thing. An experienced outdoors person is something all together different.
AW~
I agree with you on that definition….there are a lot of ‘experienced’ hikers at that meetup group.
http://intrepidangeleno.wordpress.c…ture-ventura-1-with-the-valencia-hiking-crew/
And then there is the experienced&inexperienced canyoneer and flash floods…which as you pointed out means either youve done several canyons in flash floods or havent done enough of them to qualify as experienced, even if youve seen the CAC poster.
Notwithstanding that, if I try to climb some rock, Im rock climbing….even though Im not a rock climber(meaning I dont approach it with the perspective of a rock climber). Id say something about the canyoneering perspective, but a lot of people have chimed in that there is none or is of no effect….just carry a PLB if in doubt. Apparently one just gets their fortune telling black 8 ball out and asks if its OK to go. A lucky rabbits foot is so out of style….you dont get that definitive answer.