— In Yahoo Canyons Group, “Bo”
I need to reread the literature but this is not always true. See case study about avalanches below. I will see if I can find the documentation about a statistical increase in exposure to avalanche hazards that is correlated with increased training (specific quantities of education, it is not linear).
>My only question > about the training would be if it might be prematurely instilling a > confidence level that leads to “over-confidence” thus the possibility > or should I say unnecessary risk? >
These have been important questions in the development of curriculum for other disciplines, like avalanche training for backcountry skiing. Over the years curriculum has been drastically reshaped based upon the human factors of the information: how it is implemented, bias/heuristics, etc. Unfortunately, it often takes a long series of investigations to draw worthwhile, validated conclusions, i.e. a huge investment of time. The impetus for this with avalanche education was an increased mortality rate for a lengthy period of time (on a national level).
For example, AIRE no longer teaches digging pits in the backcountry in their level one training. May seem counterproductive to those who were taught the historic way. But what they do teach to that novice audience is rescue equipment use, rescue techniques, environmental factors of avalanches, environmental symptoms of probable avalanches. They have gone in this direction partly because of the biases you mention, like the confidence factor, that aren’t a direct product of the training but are correlated. They have found statistical evidence to support that students of this new method make “better” field judgments, i.e. are less likely to trigger or be the victims of avalanches. Time will be the ultimate witness of the experiment though. They have also gone this way in part because they have discovered an increased education into snow science is necessary to evaluate the complexity of snow behavior, i.e. accuracy of judgments associated with digging pits.
Whatever the case evaluating heuristics is becoming increasingly popular in judging the outcomes of outdoor training: When to teach certain information, when to use “rules of thumb”, how information is presented, etc. Interesting reads if you can get a hold of the literature.
Youth